Betting on an $80,000 Bitcoin call options for June doesn’t seem outrageous given BTC’s bullish performance over the past few weeks. This was not the case a couple of months ago when BTC peaked at $42,000 on Jan. 8 and subsequently dropped to the $30,000 level.
Bitcoin price, USD. Source: TradingView
At that time, a 150% upside was needed from the $32,000 price on Jan. 26, and this seemed quite far-fetched. Therefore, the June $80,000 BTC call (buy) options traded at Deribit for $2,240, or 0.07 BTC.
BTC $80,000 June call option, in BTC. Source: Deribit
Less than two months later, as BTC reached $61,700 on March 13, the same call option peaked at BTC 0.15, or $9,255. That’s a 3x gain in less than seven weeks. Keep in mind that despite the 93% rally to $61,700, an additional 30% upside was needed to reach the $80,000 strike.
BTC June call option market. Source: Deribit
Despite the recent BTC price increase, the implied options probability (delta) currently sits at 39%. That call option price has also increased due to the BTC volatility change as sellers will request a more substantial premium for taking the risk during uncertain markets.
Intense price swings, regardless of the direction, will push volatility higher, and unexpected news from major media outlets usually drives the indicator up.
Bitcoin 60-day options historical volatility. Source: Buybitcoinworldwide.com
Take notice of how BTC volatility spiked from 4% in January to the current 5%. This event is notably bullish for call option buyers. Even if the BTC price had stayed the same, the option price would have climbed accordingly.
Options probabilities should not be taken literally
Options pricing is also heavily dependent on how distant the expiry date is. The same $80,000 call might be deemed worthless two days ahead of maturity. Therefore, traders should not obsess too much on implied options probability (delta).
Right now, the $80,000 June call option might seem far-fetched due to its 39% delta and the fact that BTC gained 43% in the last 100 days.
Nevertheless, traders often consider buying ‘impossible’ call options with longer expiry dates, as those who were brave enough to bet on the 150% BTC price increase to $32,000 in January are probably extremely satisfied with the results.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.