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Following the worst May for Bitcoin’s (BTC) price in the past 10 years, the largest cryptocurrency is likely to continue falling in the short term, according to JPMorgan analysts.
Weakened institutional demand is likely to drag the Bitcoin price below $30,000, JPMorgan strategist and Bitcoin expert Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in the latest research note to clients.
Based on Bitcoin’s volatility ratios to gold, the JPMorgan analyst forecasted that Bitcoin will continue to trade between $24,000 and $36,000 in the mid-term. “The fair value for bitcoin based on a volatility ratio of Bitcoin to gold of around x4 would be 1/4th of $145k or $36k. The fair value for Bitcoin based on the current volatility ratio of Bitcoin to gold of around x6 would be 1/6th of $145k or $24k. We thus see a fair value range of $24k to $36k over the medium term,” the note reads.
Panigirtzoglou said that JPMorgan still sees a $145,000 price mark as a long-term “theoretical target” for BTC’s price, “assuming a convergence of Bitcoin volatility to that of gold and an equalization of bitcoin allocations to that of gold in investor portfolios.”
“$145k is the price of Bitcoin that would equalize it with the private sector holdings of gold for investment purposes of around $2.7tr at the moment. Needless to say, full convergence or equalization of volatilities or allocations is unlikely in the foreseeable future,” the strategist wrote, adding:
“The longer-term signal remains problematic, as it has yet to turn short. It would still take price declines to the $26k level before longer-term momentum would signal capitulation.”
Panigirtzoglou noted that institutional investors appear reluctant to buy the dip in the aftermath of a major crypto crash on May 19. “We note that the mere rise in volatility, especially relative to gold, is an impediment to further institutional adoption as it reduces the attractiveness of digital gold vs. traditional gold in institutional portfolios,” the strategist stated. JPMorgan previously suggested that large institutional investors were dumping BTC in favor of gold as Bitcoin touched five-month lows near $30,000.
On Monday, Peter Brandt, a veteran financial analyst and trader, questioned whether Bitcoin’s price is likely to bounce in the near future. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $36,638, down around 1% over the past 24 hours, according to data from CoinGecko. The cryptocurrency has lost around 37% over the past 30 days but is still up 286% over the past year.
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